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Cars and Global Warming: How the Clean Cars Program Curbs Global Warming Pollution in Oregon 2005-10-06 _Cars_And_Global_Warming_.pdf

Executive Summary

Oregon has options available now to significantly limit its contribution to global warming from cars and light trucks. This report examines the impacts of global warming on Oregon, the contribution of cars and light trucks to global warming, the projected growth in pollution from cars and light trucks, the global warming pollution reductions that can be achieved by adopting the Clean Cars program, and other steps needed to curb global warming pollution from cars and trucks.

Scientists agree that global warming poses a serious threat to Oregon’s future. Scientists are now “very certain” that the region is warming. Precipitation is increasing, sea levels on parts of the Oregon Coast are rising, and snowpack in the Cascades is declining. Eventually, if no action is taken to reduce emissions of global warming pollution, these effects could add up to coastal flooding and erosion; reduced summer river flow for hydropower generation, salmon migration, and farm irrigation; and increased air pollution and heat-related deaths, among a host of other impacts on Oregon’s environment, public health and economy.

Controlling global warming pollution from the transportation sector—and particularly cars and light trucks—is essential if Oregon is to begin to reduce its emissions and its long-term impact on the climate.

The transportation sector is responsible for 38 percent of Oregon’s releases of carbon dioxide, the leading global warming gas. Cars and light trucks—such as pickups, minivans and SUVs—are the most important sources of global warming pollution in the transportation sector.

Carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks in Oregon is likely to increase to approximately 31 percent over 1990 levels by 2020 unless action is taken to reduce emissions.

The stagnation in federal corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for cars and light trucks, the recent shift toward greater use of less fuel-efficient SUVs, and increasing vehicle travel have all put Oregon on a course toward dramatically increased emissions of carbon dioxide from transportation over the next two decades.

Oregon can achieve significant reductions in its carbon dioxide emissions by implementing the Clean Cars program:

• Implementation of the global warming pollution standards in the Clean Cars program would produce significant reductions in vehicle global warming emissions as cars are equipped with currently-available technologies such as direct-injection engines, advanced transmissions, improved air conditioning systems, and other advanced technologies. By implementing the program in 2005 (to take effect in model year 2009), Oregon will reduce carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks by 12.3 percent below projected levels by 2020.

• The Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) requirements in the Clean Cars program will result in sales of approximately 7,000 hybrids annually in Oregon, starting with model year 2009, increasing to 14,000 by model year 2016. This requirement will pave the way for the widespread introduction of clean vehicles (including not just hybrids but eventually fuel-cell vehicles and other advanced technologies) that could result in the dramatic long-term reductions in global warming pollution necessary to truly curb global warming. In addition, the ZEV requirement will lead to light-duty carbon dioxide emissions reductions of about 1.4 percent below projected levels by 2020.

• Once the program is fully implemented in 2016, consumers are projected to save at least $3 to $7 every month as a result of the reduced operating costs associated with the standards – and more if gasoline prices remain high. Drivers who purchase a new car or light truck in 2016 would collectively save at least $8.2 million annually. Once the loans for those vehicles are paid off, collective annual savings would be $40.3 million. If gas prices remain as high as they currently are, savings will be even greater. They will also be greater for drivers who do not finance their cars.

• While implementing the Clean Cars program will contribute significantly to reducing global warming pollution, Oregon will need to adopt additional policies to reduce emissions from the transportation sector in order to stabilize and reduce total global warming pollution emissions in the long term. Even with implementation of the Clean Cars program, carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks could remain 1.7 percent higher in 2020 than in 2000, compared to 16 percent greater if no action is taken, (because of a large projected increase in vehicle travel.

Oregon should move quickly to adopt policies that will stabilize, and ultimately reduce, emissions of carbon dioxide from cars and light trucks.

• Oregon should adopt the Clean Cars program in 2005 so that new emissions standards take effect in model year 2009.

• Oregon should adopt other programs that reduce global warming pollution from the transportation sector, such as clean car incentives that encourage individuals and fleets to purchase vehicles with lower global warming emissions, improved land-use planning to apply the best “smart growth” policies and reduce vehicle travel, continued transit improvements, and other measures.